Tenets of Decision Making

  1. Challenge your assumptions (both implicit and explicit assumptions)
    • Think about why and under what circumstances your assumptions could be wrong
  2. Be aware of any heuristics/Rules of thumb (System I thinking) during the decision making process
  3. 3 C’s — Communicate, Communicate, Communicate
  4. Assemble the most diverse team as possible
  5. Reward based on the soundness/cleverness of the decision making process, not on the results!
  6. Be Allocentric
    • Why are the buyers buying and the sellers selling? (Think about Incentives — always)
      • Who Chooses?
      • Who Pays?
      • Who Uses?
      • Who Profits?
    • Simulate by role playing
    • PARTS — Players, Actions, Rules, Tactics and Scope
    • Remember the typical games
      • Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD)
      • Entry/Preemption
  7. Always reframe from a neutral, positive, and negative context (mentally change your reference state)
  8. Expand your domain of analysis (Examine the games in the larger context)
  9. Choice architecture matters
  10. Consider the outside view (analysis based on the base rates and remember to avoid sample selection bias) versus the inside view

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